· Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
Amiens vs Reims Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Amiens and 1.18 for Reims, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Amiens the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Amiens win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Amiens home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Reims away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Amiens to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Amiens and 1.18 for Reims, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.8%
- 2–07.8%
Recent form
Amiens
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Villefranche · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Quevilly · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Orleans · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cannes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Bastia · 3-0 (W)
Reims
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Montpellier · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nancy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Guingamp · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs RED Star FC 93 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Annecy · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Amiens win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.