Zvezda Stadium · Analysis updated 08:32 UTC
Amkar vs Dinamo Moskva II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.07 expected goals for Amkar and 1.03 for Dinamo Moskva II, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Amkar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Amkar win
77.9% probability
Expected goals
3.07 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Amkar home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Moskva II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Amkar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 13% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.07 goals for Amkar and 1.03 for Dinamo Moskva II, a combined 4.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.2%
- 2–18.0%
- 3–08.0%
- 2–07.8%
- 4–16.3%
Recent form
Amkar
- 2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Kirov · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Miass · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Stavropol · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Moskva II · 3-0 (W)
Dinamo Moskva II
- 2026-10-14T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Stavropol · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Irtysh Omsk · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amkar · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zenit 2 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tyumen · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · Amkar 3-0 Dinamo Moskva II (Second League A - Division A Silver)
- 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · Amkar 4-0 Dinamo Moskva II (Second League A - Division A Silver)
- 2026-03-07T12:00:00.000Z · Amkar 3-4 Dinamo Moskva II (Second League A - Division A Silver)
Second League A - Division A Silver table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 32 |
| 2 | Amkar | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Tyumen | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Torpedo Miass | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Dinamo Stavropol | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 |
| 6 | Dinamo Moskva II | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 8 |
| 7 | Irtysh Omsk | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -17 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Amkar win, at 77.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.