· Analysis updated 18:23 UTC
Amkar vs Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Amkar and 1.26 for Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Amkar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Amkar win
55.5% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Amkar home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Amkar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 21% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Amkar and 1.26 for Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–07.5%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Amkar
- 2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Kirov · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Miass · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Stavropol · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Moskva II · 3-0 (W)
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
- 2026-09-25T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Barnaul · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs KDV · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylya Sovetov II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Akron II · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Amkar win, at 55.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.