Ammerthal vs Fortuna Regensburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Ammerthal and 0.95 for Fortuna Regensburg, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Ammerthal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ammerthal win

45.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ammerthal home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fortuna Regensburg away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Ammerthal win45%

Draw28%

Fortuna Regensburg win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–013.6%
1–112.9%
0–010.3%
0–19.8%
2–09.0%

Recent form

Ammerthal

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Bamberg · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Neudrossenfeld · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ingolstadt II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordlingen · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger FV · 1-2 (L)

Fortuna Regensburg

2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordlingen · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger FV · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jahn Regensburg II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gebenbach · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · Ammerthal 1-3 Fortuna Regensburg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2025-03-21T18:00:00.000Z · Ammerthal 1-1 Fortuna Regensburg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2024-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · Ammerthal 0-4 Fortuna Regensburg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2023-11-05T14:00:00.000Z · Ammerthal 2-2 Fortuna Regensburg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2023-07-23T15:30:00.000Z · Ammerthal 3-1 Fortuna Regensburg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cham	16	14	1	1	29	43
2	Bayern Hof	16	8	5	3	11	29
3	Eintracht Bamberg	15	8	4	3	13	28
4	Würzburger FV	15	8	4	3	9	28
5	Kornburg	15	7	6	2	14	27
6	Gebenbach	16	8	3	5	1	27
7	Jahn Regensburg II	15	7	5	3	11	26
8	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	16	6	5	5	6	23
9	Fortuna Regensburg	15	6	4	5	9	22
10	Stadeln	15	5	6	4	-3	21
11	Neudrossenfeld	16	6	1	9	-5	19
12	Weiden	16	4	5	7	-8	17
13	Großbardorf	15	5	1	9	-8	16
14	Ammerthal	16	4	3	9	-14	15
15	DJK Bamberg	16	3	5	8	-14	14
16	Ingolstadt II	16	3	4	9	-11	13
17	Nordlingen	15	2	5	8	-17	11
18	ASV Neumarkt	16	1	3	12	-23	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ammerthal win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.