Estádio da Medideira · Referee Rui Inácio · Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Amora vs Aljustrelense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Amora and 0.48 for Aljustrelense, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Amora the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Amora win
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Amora home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aljustrelense away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Amora to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 25% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Amora and 0.48 for Aljustrelense, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.5%
- 2–015.9%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–19.7%
- 3–08.2%
Recent form
Amora
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lajense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs UD da Serra · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs 1º Dezembro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria Setubal · 3-1 (W)
Aljustrelense
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sintrense · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lagoa · 1-1 (D)
- 2021-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria Setubal · 0-2 (L)
- 2021-04-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Moura · 2-1 (W)
- 2021-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Setubal | 20 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 29 | 50 |
| 2 | Amora | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 44 |
| 3 | Olhanense | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 4 | Louletano | 20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 34 |
| 5 | Moncarapachense | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 25 |
| 6 | Pinhalnovense | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 7 | Juventude Évora | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | -9 | 24 |
| 8 | Lagos | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -1 | 23 |
| 9 | Lusitano GC Évora | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 10 | Aljustrelense | 20 | 4 | 2 | 14 | -29 | 14 |
| 11 | Moura | 20 | 0 | 4 | 16 | -26 | 4 |
| 12 | Armacenenses | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Amora win, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.