Medideira Stadium · Analysis updated 16:09 UTC
Amora vs Caldas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Amora and 1.14 for Caldas, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Amora the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Amora win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Amora home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Caldas away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Amora to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Amora and 1.14 for Caldas, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
Amora
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lajense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs UD da Serra · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs 1º Dezembro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria Setubal · 3-1 (W)
Caldas
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória de Sernache · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs União Santarém · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sintrense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Leça | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | AD Marco 09 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Vianense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Mafra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Fafe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Louletano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Varzim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | União Santarém | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | São João Ver | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Caldas | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Pacos Ferreira | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Trofense | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Guimaraes B | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Amora win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.