· Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
Amurrio Club vs Durango Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.84 expected goals for Amurrio Club and 1.75 for Durango, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Durango the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Durango win
59.2% probability
Expected goals
0.84 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Amurrio Club home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Durango away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Durango to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 18% / 23% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.84 goals for Amurrio Club and 1.75 for Durango, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.2%
- 0–211.5%
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.5%
Recent form
Amurrio Club
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Leioa · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Erandio · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sodupe · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Alavés III · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aurrerá Vitoria · 1-2 (L)
Durango
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Derio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Touring · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Beasain · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Aretxabaleta · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T09:15:00.000Z · A vs Santurtzi · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 2 | Leioa | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 3 | Derio | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad III | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Aretxabaleta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Deportivo Alavés III | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | Pasaia KE | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | San Ignacio | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Touring | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Sodupe | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
| 11 | Durango | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Beasain | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Lagun Onak | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Erandio | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Santurtzi | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Eibar III | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
| 17 | R. Union B | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Durango win, at 59.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.