Estádio Municipal Engenheiro Sílvio Henriques Cerveira (Anadia) · Analysis updated 05:43 UTC
Anadia vs Penalva Castelo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Anadia and 1.17 for Penalva Castelo, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Anadia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Anadia win
57.7% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Anadia home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Anadia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Anadia and 1.17 for Penalva Castelo, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 60%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–08.4%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
Anadia
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vila Meã · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gouveia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs União Lamas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Alpendorada · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cinfães · 2-2 (D)
Penalva Castelo
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveirense · 0-4 (L)
- 2018-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Anadia · 1-3 (L)
- 2016-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amarante · 0-4 (L)
- 2016-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol · 4-4 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Anadia win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.