Stadio del Conero · Analysis updated 08:16 UTC
Ancona vs L'Aquila Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Ancona and 1.38 for L'Aquila, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Ancona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
L'Aquila away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ancona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 26% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Ancona and 1.38 for L'Aquila, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–08.7%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.3%
Recent form
Ancona
L'Aquila
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Foligno Calcio · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Recanatese · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Santegidiese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Termoli Calcio · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pietralunga · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone F table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Aquila | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| 2 | Teramo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Ancona | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Foligno Calcio | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Vigor Senigallia | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Notaresco | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 | Atletico Ascoli | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Real Giulianova | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 10 | Montecchio Gallo | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Lanciano FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Termoli Calcio | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Recanatese | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Santegidiese | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Pietralunga | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Maceratese | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Sporting Trestina | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Angelana | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.