Lotto Park · Analysis updated 20:32 UTC
Anderlecht vs KVC Westerlo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.33 for KVC Westerlo, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Anderlecht the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Anderlecht home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
KVC Westerlo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Anderlecht
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Reims · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs KV Mechelen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Genk · 0-0 (D)
KVC Westerlo
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Truiden · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Standard Liege · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · A vs KV Mechelen · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lommel United · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-07T15:00:00.000Z · Anderlecht 0-4 KVC Westerlo (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-07-27T11:30:00.000Z · Anderlecht 5-2 KVC Westerlo (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-03-09T15:00:00.000Z · Anderlecht 0-2 KVC Westerlo (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2024-12-05T19:30:00.000Z · Anderlecht 4-1 KVC Westerlo (Cup)
- 2024-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · Anderlecht 2-2 KVC Westerlo (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-12-01T19:45:00.000Z · Anderlecht 3-1 KVC Westerlo (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-08-20T11:30:00.000Z · Anderlecht 2-1 KVC Westerlo (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-04-09T11:30:00.000Z · Anderlecht 0-0 KVC Westerlo (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2022-09-11T11:30:00.000Z · Anderlecht 1-2 KVC Westerlo (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2022-01-09T00:00:00.000Z · Anderlecht 2-0 KVC Westerlo (Friendlies Clubs)
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | KVC Westerlo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | Zulte Waregem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Lommel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.