Lotto Park · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Anderlecht vs OH Leuven Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Anderlecht and 0.50 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Anderlecht the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Anderlecht win
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Anderlecht home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
OH Leuven away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.0%
- 2–015.5%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–110.0%
- 3–08.0%
Recent form
Anderlecht
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cercle Brugge · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Reims · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 1-2 (L)
OH Leuven
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs RAAL La Louvière · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cercle Brugge · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:15:00.000Z · A vs SK Beveren · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gent · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Standard Liege · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-28T19:45:00.000Z · Anderlecht 5-1 OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · Anderlecht 1-1 OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2024-12-01T15:00:00.000Z · Anderlecht 0-0 OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2024-08-10T18:45:00.000Z · Anderlecht 1-1 OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2024-01-21T17:30:00.000Z · Anderlecht 1-1 OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-10-28T18:45:00.000Z · Anderlecht 5-1 OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-03-19T15:00:00.000Z · Anderlecht 2-0 OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2022-09-04T11:30:00.000Z · Anderlecht 2-2 OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2022-02-26T19:45:00.000Z · Anderlecht 0-0 OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2021-10-31T17:30:00.000Z · Anderlecht 2-2 OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League)
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | KVC Westerlo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | Zulte Waregem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Lommel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Anderlecht win, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.