· Analysis updated 11:00 UTC
Anderlecht W vs Genk W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Anderlecht W and 0.72 for Genk W, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Anderlecht W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Anderlecht W win
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Anderlecht W home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Genk W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.9%
- 2–013.2%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.3%
Recent form
Anderlecht W
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Brugge W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T11:30:00.000Z · H vs RAAL La Louviere W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Zulte-Waregem W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gent W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Genk W · 4-0 (W)
Genk W
- 2026-10-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Standard Liege W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gent W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Brugge W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs OH Leuven W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Anderlecht W · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · Anderlecht W 4-0 Genk W (Super League Women)
- 2026-02-07T18:00:00.000Z · Anderlecht W 2-1 Genk W (Super League Women)
- 2025-11-23T17:30:00.000Z · Anderlecht W 3-1 Genk W (Super League Women)
- 2025-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · Anderlecht W 6-0 Genk W (Super League Women)
- 2025-02-01T17:30:00.000Z · Anderlecht W 4-1 Genk W (Super League Women)
- 2024-11-09T12:30:00.000Z · Anderlecht W 1-1 Genk W (Super League Women)
- 2024-09-28T16:30:00.000Z · Anderlecht W 5-1 Genk W (Super League Women)
- 2024-05-25T11:30:00.000Z · Anderlecht W 4-2 Genk W (Super League Women)
- 2024-03-29T19:30:00.000Z · Anderlecht W 5-0 Genk W (Super League Women)
- 2024-01-12T19:30:00.000Z · Anderlecht W 4-3 Genk W (Super League Women)
Super League Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anderlecht W | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Club Brugge W | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | OH Leuven W | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 12 |
| 4 | Genk W | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | RAAL La Louviere W | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Standard Liege W | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 9 |
| 7 | Zulte-Waregem W | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 3 |
| 8 | Gent W | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -20 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Anderlecht W win, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.