Andratx vs Binissalem Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Andratx and 0.75 for Binissalem, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Andratx the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Andratx win

48.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.28 – 0.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Andratx home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Binissalem away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Andratx to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 29% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Andratx and 0.75 for Binissalem, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Andratx win49%

Draw29%

Binissalem win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals60%

Over 2.5 goals33%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

1–016.8%
0–013.2%
1–112.6%
2–010.7%
0–19.9%

Recent form

Andratx

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Binissalem · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Manacor · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs PE Sant Jordi · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Llosetense · 1-0 (W)

Binissalem

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Andratx · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sineu · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Migjorn · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Platges Calvià · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Cardassar · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2023-02-19T15:30:00.000Z · Andratx 2-1 Binissalem (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
2022-10-15T14:00:00.000Z · Andratx 3-1 Binissalem (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
2020-01-25T15:30:00.000Z · Andratx 3-0 Binissalem (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
2019-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · Andratx 0-0 Binissalem (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Platges Calvià	8	6	0	2	8	18
2	Constància	8	5	2	1	10	17
3	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	7	5	2	0	9	17
4	Manacor	7	5	1	1	9	16
5	Cardassar	8	4	2	2	6	14
6	Santanyí	7	3	4	0	5	13
7	Porreres	7	4	0	3	4	12
8	PE Sant Jordi	7	3	3	1	3	12
9	Alcúdia	7	4	0	3	2	12
10	Formentera	7	3	2	2	3	11
11	Llosetense	8	3	1	4	-3	10
12	Mercadal	8	2	2	4	-5	8
13	Binissalem	7	2	1	4	-3	7
14	Andratx	8	1	3	4	-4	6
15	Migjorn	8	1	2	5	-9	5
16	Arenal	7	1	1	5	-9	4
17	Sineu	8	0	2	6	-13	2
18	Inter Ibiza	7	0	2	5	-13	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Andratx win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.