· Analysis updated 11:02 UTC
Andratx vs Santanyí Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Andratx and 1.22 for Santanyí, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Andratx the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Andratx home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santanyí away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Andratx to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 27% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Andratx and 1.22 for Santanyí, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–08.1%
Recent form
Andratx
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Binissalem · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Manacor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs PE Sant Jordi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Llosetense · 1-0 (W)
Santanyí
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Llosetense · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Porreres · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Mercadal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcúdia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Constància · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · Andratx 2-1 Santanyí (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-03-04T15:00:00.000Z · Andratx 5-0 Santanyí (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
- 2022-10-29T14:30:00.000Z · Andratx 5-0 Santanyí (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
- 2019-10-26T14:30:00.000Z · Andratx 2-1 Santanyí (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.