Andrézieux vs Grasse Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Andrézieux and 1.28 for Grasse, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Andrézieux the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Andrézieux win

45.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.63 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Andrézieux home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grasse away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Andrézieux win46%

Draw24%

Grasse win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.4%
2–19.3%
1–08.9%
1–27.3%
2–07.3%

Recent form

Andrézieux

2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hyères · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Hauts Lyonnais · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Troyes II · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyon Duchere · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fréjus St-Raphaël · 0-2 (L)

Grasse

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fréjus St-Raphaël · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rumilly Vallières · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Limonest · 3-1 (W)
2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Istres · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Andrézieux · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-17T17:00:00.000Z · Andrézieux 1-2 Grasse (National 2 - Group C)
2025-12-06T17:00:00.000Z · Andrézieux 2-2 Grasse (National 2 - Group C)
2025-01-18T17:00:00.000Z · Andrézieux 0-0 Grasse (National 2 - Group A)
2024-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · Andrézieux 1-2 Grasse (National 2 - Group A)
2024-05-11T16:00:00.000Z · Andrézieux 1-3 Grasse (National 2 - Group A)
2024-01-13T16:00:00.000Z · Andrézieux 1-2 Grasse (National 2 - Group A)
2020-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · Andrézieux 1-3 Grasse (National 2 - Group C)

National 2 - Group C table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nimes	7	5	1	1	11	16
2	Hyères	7	3	4	0	7	13
3	Toulon	7	3	3	1	4	12
4	UF Touraine	6	3	3	0	3	12
5	Rumilly Vallières	7	4	0	3	10	12
6	Fréjus St-Raphaël	7	4	0	3	3	12
7	Hauts Lyonnais	7	2	4	1	0	10
8	Troyes II	7	3	1	3	-4	10
9	Chasselay MDA	6	2	3	1	3	9
10	Andrézieux	7	2	3	2	1	9
11	Saint-Priest	7	1	4	2	-4	7
12	Limonest	6	1	3	2	-3	6
13	Lyon Duchere	7	2	0	5	-7	6
14	Istres	6	0	4	2	-4	4
15	Bourges Foot 18	6	0	4	2	-4	4
16	Chateauroux	6	0	3	3	-5	3
17	Canet Roussillon	6	0	2	4	-11	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Andrézieux win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.