· Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Angby vs Korsnäs Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.67 expected goals for Angby and 0.80 for Korsnäs, a combined total of 4.47. That distribution gives Angby the largest share of the 1X2 market at 88%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 88% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Angby win
87.7% probability
Expected goals
3.67 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Angby home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Korsnäs away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Angby to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 88%, against 88% / 8% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.67 goals for Angby and 0.80 for Korsnäs, a combined 4.47 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
12%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.4%
- 4–08.7%
- 2–07.7%
- 3–17.5%
- 4–16.9%
Recent form
Angby
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Korsnäs · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunnersta · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kungsängen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gute · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lidingö · 3-2 (W)
Korsnäs
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Viggbyholms IK · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lidingö · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Skiljebo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kungsängen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Angby · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 - Norra Svealand table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skiljebo | 25 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 56 |
| 2 | Sunnersta | 25 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 43 | 53 |
| 3 | Enskede | 25 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 52 |
| 4 | Angby | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 29 | 51 |
| 5 | Falu BS | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 44 |
| 6 | Täby | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 41 |
| 7 | Franke | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 34 |
| 8 | Gute | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 32 |
| 9 | Bollstanäs | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 31 |
| 10 | Kungsängen | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -9 | 25 |
| 11 | Lidingö | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | -25 | 23 |
| 12 | Viggbyholms IK | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | -24 | 22 |
| 13 | Korsnäs | 25 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -38 | 14 |
| 14 | Helges | 25 | 2 | 4 | 19 | -49 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Angby win, at 87.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 88% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.