Stade Raymond-Kopa · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Angers vs Marseille Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Angers and 1.37 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Marseille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.1% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Angers home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marseille away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.45 (model 49.5% vs market 38.4%, edge +11.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.45 | 38.4% | 49.5% | 2.02 | +11.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.67 | 56.9% | 57.7% | 1.73 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 3.00 | 30.5% | 30.9% | 3.24 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 73.1% | 73.2% | 1.37 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.9% | 26.8% | 3.73 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.15 | 42.6% | 42.3% | 2.36 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 69.9% | 69.1% | 1.45 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.53 | 61.6% | 50.5% | 1.98 | -11.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Angers
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 3-1 (W)
Marseille
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Beşiktaş · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rennes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-17T20:05:00.000Z · Angers 2-5 Marseille (Ligue 1)
- 2025-10-29T20:05:00.000Z · Angers 2-2 Marseille (Ligue 1)
- 2025-02-09T19:45:00.000Z · Angers 0-2 Marseille (Ligue 1)
- 2024-10-04T18:45:00.000Z · Angers 1-1 Marseille (Ligue 1)
- 2023-05-14T18:45:00.000Z · Angers 1-3 Marseille (Ligue 1)
- 2022-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · Angers 0-3 Marseille (Ligue 1)
- 2022-02-04T20:00:00.000Z · Angers 2-5 Marseille (Ligue 1)
- 2021-09-22T19:00:00.000Z · Angers 0-0 Marseille (Ligue 1)
- 2021-05-16T19:00:00.000Z · Angers 2-3 Marseille (Ligue 1)
- 2020-12-23T20:00:00.000Z · Angers 2-1 Marseille (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.