Stade Raymond-Kopa · Analysis updated 13:52 UTC
Angers vs Strasbourg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Angers and 1.86 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Angers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.9% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Angers home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Strasbourg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Angers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 21% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Angers and 1.86 for Strasbourg, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.2%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–15.0%
Recent form
Angers
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Marseille · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 1-2 (L)
Strasbourg
- 2026-10-17T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nice · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Estac Troyes · 6-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Lille | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Rennes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Lens | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Marseille | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Brestois 29 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 | Nice | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Angers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.