Hanuman Stadium · Analysis updated 19:27 UTC
Angkor Tiger vs Boeung Ket Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for Angkor Tiger and 1.35 for Boeung Ket, a combined total of 4.23. That distribution gives Angkor Tiger the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Angkor Tiger win
68.8% probability
Expected goals
2.88 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Angkor Tiger home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Boeung Ket away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–06.0%
- 3–05.8%
- 1–15.7%
Recent form
Angkor Tiger
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs National Defense · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Kirivong Sok Sen Chey · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Phnom Penh Crown · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kompong Dewa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs NagaWorld · 4-1 (W)
Boeung Ket
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Svay Rieng · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Visakha · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dangkor Senchey · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-05-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Svay Rieng · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kompong Dewa · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T11:00:00.000Z · Angkor Tiger 2-0 Boeung Ket (C-League)
- 2026-03-08T11:00:00.000Z · Angkor Tiger 1-1 Boeung Ket (C-League)
- 2026-01-25T11:00:00.000Z · Angkor Tiger 1-0 Boeung Ket (C-League)
- 2025-10-05T11:00:00.000Z · Angkor Tiger 3-0 Boeung Ket (C-League)
- 2025-05-03T11:00:00.000Z · Angkor Tiger 1-3 Boeung Ket (C-League)
- 2025-03-09T11:00:00.000Z · Angkor Tiger 1-2 Boeung Ket (C-League)
- 2025-01-26T11:00:00.000Z · Angkor Tiger 1-0 Boeung Ket (C-League)
- 2024-10-19T11:00:00.000Z · Angkor Tiger 0-0 Boeung Ket (C-League)
- 2024-02-04T11:00:00.000Z · Angkor Tiger 2-5 Boeung Ket (C-League)
- 2023-11-26T08:30:00.000Z · Angkor Tiger 3-3 Boeung Ket (C-League)
C-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Visakha | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 2 | Svay Rieng | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 |
| 3 | NagaWorld | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Phnom Penh Crown | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Dangkor Senchey | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 |
| 6 | Angkor Tiger | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 7 | Kompong Dewa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Kirivong Sok Sen Chey | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
| 9 | Life Sihanoukville | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Boeung Ket | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | National Defense | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Angkor Tiger win, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.