Anglet Genets vs Lège-Cap-Ferret Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Anglet Genets and 1.60 for Lège-Cap-Ferret, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Anglet Genets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Anglet Genets home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lège-Cap-Ferret away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Anglet Genets win42%

Draw23%

Lège-Cap-Ferret win36%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.8%
2–18.6%
1–27.9%
2–26.9%
1–06.1%

Recent form

Anglet Genets

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lège-Cap-Ferret · 6-1 (W)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Canet Roussillon · 1-3 (L)
2026-04-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse II · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SAG Cestas · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Agde · 2-0 (W)

Lège-Cap-Ferret

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Anglet Genets · 1-6 (L)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Blagnac · 1-4 (L)
2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarbes · 4-4 (D)
2026-04-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Canet Roussillon · 0-3 (L)
2026-04-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse II · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · Anglet Genets 6-1 Lège-Cap-Ferret (National 3 - Group A)
2025-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · Anglet Genets 4-1 Lège-Cap-Ferret (National 3 - Group A)
2024-01-20T18:00:00.000Z · Anglet Genets 0-1 Lège-Cap-Ferret (National 3 - Group B)
2023-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · Anglet Genets 1-1 Lège-Cap-Ferret (National 3 - Group B)
2023-06-03T16:00:00.000Z · Anglet Genets 3-2 Lège-Cap-Ferret (National 3 - Group A)
2022-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · Anglet Genets 0-0 Lège-Cap-Ferret (National 3 - Group A)
2022-03-26T18:00:00.000Z · Anglet Genets 2-1 Lège-Cap-Ferret (National 3 - Group A)
2021-11-07T14:00:00.000Z · Anglet Genets 2-1 Lège-Cap-Ferret (National 3 - Group A)
2020-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · Anglet Genets 0-3 Lège-Cap-Ferret (National 3 - Group A)

National 3 - Group A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tarbes	26	14	8	4	26	47
2	Canet Roussillon	26	12	9	5	15	45
3	Colomiers	26	13	6	7	5	43
4	Onet-le-Château	26	11	6	9	0	39
5	Pau II	26	10	7	9	6	37
6	Anglet Genets	26	12	7	7	13	37
7	Bassin d'Arcachon Sud	26	9	9	8	2	36
8	Toulouse II	26	9	6	11	4	33
9	Castanet	26	8	8	10	-5	32
10	Blagnac	26	8	8	10	1	29
11	Lège-Cap-Ferret	26	6	10	10	-15	28
12	SAG Cestas	26	6	10	10	-16	28
13	Agde	26	6	6	14	-20	24
14	Alberes Argelès	26	5	6	15	-16	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.