Grand Stade de Marrakech · Referee Kamaku Waweru, Kenya · Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
Angola vs Zimbabwe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Angola and 1.05 for Zimbabwe, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Angola the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.2% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Angola home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zimbabwe away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Angola to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 27% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Angola and 1.05 for Zimbabwe, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–08.9%
- 2–18.8%
Recent form
Angola
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Egypt · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Central African Republic · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-06-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Mauritania · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-12-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Egypt · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-12-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Zimbabwe · 1-1 (D)
Zimbabwe
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Congo DR · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sierra Leone · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-30T13:30:00.000Z · A vs India · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-26T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Nigeria · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zambia U23 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Africa Cup of Nations table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Mali | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Comoros | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Zambia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 1 | Egypt | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Angola | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Zimbabwe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Tunisia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Tanzania | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Uganda | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 1 | Senegal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Congo DR | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Benin | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Botswana | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 1 | Algeria | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Cameroon | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Mozambique | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Gabon | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 1 | Mozambique | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 2 | Benin | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 | Tanzania | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 5 | Angola | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 6 | Comoros | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.