Raymond E. Guishard Technical Centre · Referee N. Simon · Analysis updated 16:27 UTC
Anguilla vs Turks and Caicos Islands Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Anguilla and 1.68 for Turks and Caicos Islands, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Turks and Caicos Islands the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Turks and Caicos Islands away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Turks and Caicos Islands to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 33% / 24% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Anguilla and 1.68 for Turks and Caicos Islands, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.7%
- 0–17.4%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Anguilla
- 2026-10-04T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Aruba · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-01T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Antigua and Barbuda · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Aruba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Antigua and Barbuda · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dominica · 0-1 (L)
Turks and Caicos Islands
- 2026-10-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Montserrat · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs British Virgin Islands · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs British Virgin Islands · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Montserrat · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-08-14T00:00:00.000Z · A vs US Virgin Islands · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panama | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Suriname | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Guatemala | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | El Salvador | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 1 | Curaçao | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Jamaica | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Trinidad and Tobago | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Bermuda | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -19 | 1 |
| 1 | Haiti | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Honduras | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Costa Rica | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Nicaragua | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.