Northern-Ireland · Championship · Regular Season - 618:45

18:45 UTC

Friday, 4 September 2026

ArdsWDW

· Analysis updated 03:49 UTC

Annagh United vs Ards Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for Annagh United and 2.30 for Ards, a combined total of 4.27. That distribution gives Ards the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.

Model pick

Ards to Win

46.3% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.97 – 2.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Annagh United win34%
Draw20%
Ards win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%
Over 2.5 goals80%
Over 3.5 goals62%
Both teams to score77%

Correct score

  • 1–27.3%
  • 2–27.2%
  • 1–16.3%
  • 2–16.2%
  • 1–35.6%

Why the model likes this

  • Annagh United home form

    7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Ards to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 34% / 20% / 46% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.97 goals for Annagh United and 2.30 for Ards, a combined 4.27 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 80% and both teams to score at 77%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.

Recent form

Annagh United

  • 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundela · 2-2 (D)
  • 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rathfriland · 4-2 (W)
  • 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newington Youth · 1-4 (L)
  • 2026-08-01T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Ballymena United · 2-2 (D)
  • 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ballymacash Rangers · 5-2 (W)

Ards

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Championship table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Ards321047
    2Newington Youth321047
    3Glenavon FC320146
    4H&W Welders320136
    5Newry City AFC3201-16
    6Loughgall312025
    7Moyola Park311104
    8Queen's University311104
    9Institute311104
    10Annagh United3111-14
    11Dundela303003
    12Strabane Athletic3102-23
    13Ballinamallard United3102-23
    14Warrenpoint Town3102-33
    15Armagh City3012-31
    16Rathfriland3003-50

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.