· Analysis updated 06:15 UTC
Annagh United vs Institute Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Annagh United and 1.58 for Institute, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Annagh United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Annagh United win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Annagh United home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Institute away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 1–17.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.4%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Annagh United
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Warrenpoint Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Institute · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newry City AFC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs H&W Welders · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ards · 2-1 (W)
Institute
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Loughgall · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ards · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs H&W Welders · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newington Youth · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Annagh United · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-17T20:00:00.000Z · Annagh United 3-1 Institute (Championship)
- 2025-11-15T15:00:00.000Z · Annagh United 0-1 Institute (Championship)
- 2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Annagh United 2-0 Institute (Championship)
- 2025-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · Annagh United 6-2 Institute (Championship)
- 2024-11-02T15:00:00.000Z · Annagh United 0-0 Institute (Championship)
- 2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · Annagh United 2-1 Institute (Championship)
- 2024-04-13T14:00:00.000Z · Annagh United 2-0 Institute (Championship)
- 2024-01-13T15:00:00.000Z · Annagh United 0-0 Institute (Championship)
- 2023-12-09T15:00:00.000Z · Annagh United 3-1 Institute (Championship)
- 2023-12-05T20:00:00.000Z · Annagh United 1-1 Institute (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Annagh United | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Glenavon FC | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 24 |
| 3 | Newington Youth | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 4 | Queen's University | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 20 |
| 5 | Institute | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 6 | Newry City AFC | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 19 |
| 7 | Warrenpoint Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Ballinamallard United | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 9 | H&W Welders | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | Ards | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 11 | Loughgall | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -6 | 14 |
| 12 | Moyola Park | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 13 | Rathfriland | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Dundela | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Strabane Athletic | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 16 | Armagh City | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Annagh United win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.