Galabank · Analysis updated 06:28 UTC
Annan Athletic vs Elgin City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Annan Athletic and 2.23 for Elgin City, a combined total of 3.51. That distribution gives Elgin City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Elgin City win
58.7% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 2.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Annan Athletic home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Elgin City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Elgin City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 21% / 20% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Annan Athletic and 2.23 for Elgin City, a combined 3.51 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 1–18.6%
- 0–27.4%
- 1–37.1%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
Annan Athletic
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Clyde · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Alloa Athletic · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stranraer · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stirling Albion · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hibernian U21 · 2-1 (W)
Elgin City
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Clyde · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterhead · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stranraer · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Annan Athletic · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stranraer | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Clyde | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | Elgin City | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Spartans | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 6 | Dumbarton | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 13 |
| 7 | Stirling Albion | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 12 |
| 8 | Edinburgh City | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Forfar Athletic | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Annan Athletic | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Elgin City win, at 58.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.