Antonis Papadopoulos · Referee Menelaos Antoniou · Analysis updated 03:57 UTC
Anorthosis vs Pafos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.81 expected goals for Anorthosis and 1.99 for Pafos, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Pafos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pafos win
65.0% probability
Expected goals
0.81 – 1.99
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Anorthosis home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pafos away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pafos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 14% / 21% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.81 goals for Anorthosis and 1.99 for Pafos, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.1%
- 0–212.0%
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–38.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.40 | 66.3% | 69.2% | 1.45 | +2.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.1% | 79.4% | 1.26 | +2.3 |
| Match result | Home | 7.00 | 13.3% | 14.4% | 6.94 | +1.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.05 | 46.1% | 47.0% | 2.13 | +0.9 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.80 | 51.5% | 52.1% | 1.92 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 1.44 | 64.6% | 65.0% | 1.54 | +0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 48.5% | 47.9% | 2.09 | -0.6 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.75 | 53.9% | 53.0% | 1.89 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.62 | 35.9% | 35.0% | 2.86 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 22.1% | 20.6% | 4.85 | -1.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.08 | 87.1% | 85.6% | 1.17 | -1.5 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.75 | 33.7% | 30.8% | 3.25 | -2.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Anorthosis
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nea Salamis · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Apoel Nicosia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Apollon Limassol · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AEL · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Apoel Nicosia · 1-3 (L)
Pafos
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Riga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Apoel Nicosia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Anorthosis · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AEL · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apollon Limassol | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | AEL | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | AEK Larnaca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Omonia Nicosia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 5 | Aris | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Apoel Nicosia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 7 | Pafos | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Anorthosis | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Aradippou | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Nea Salamis | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Krasava Ypsonas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 14 | Karmiotissa | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pafos win, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.