Ansan Greeners vs Hwaseong Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Ansan Greeners and 1.33 for Hwaseong, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Hwaseong the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hwaseong win

46.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.90 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ansan Greeners home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hwaseong away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Ansan Greeners win25%

Draw28%

Hwaseong win47%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

0–114.3%
1–112.9%
0–010.8%
1–09.7%
0–29.5%

Recent form

Ansan Greeners

2026-10-25T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Cheonan City · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-17T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Yongin City · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Suwon Bluewings · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-20T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Cheongju · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hwaseong · 0-2 (L)

Hwaseong

2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Seongnam FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ansan Greeners · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheonan City · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Cheongju · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-23T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Jeonnam Dragons · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · Ansan Greeners 0-2 Hwaseong (K League 2)
2026-05-03T05:00:00.000Z · Ansan Greeners 0-2 Hwaseong (K League 2)
2025-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · Ansan Greeners 0-1 Hwaseong (K League 2)
2025-06-15T10:00:00.000Z · Ansan Greeners 0-0 Hwaseong (K League 2)
2025-03-29T05:00:00.000Z · Ansan Greeners 3-3 Hwaseong (K League 2)
2023-03-29T10:00:00.000Z · Ansan Greeners 3-2 Hwaseong (FA Cup)
2019-03-27T05:00:00.000Z · Ansan Greeners 2-3 Hwaseong (FA Cup)

K League 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Suwon Bluewings	28	19	5	4	25	62
2	Suwon City FC	28	15	9	4	22	54
3	Seoul E-Land FC	28	16	6	6	20	54
4	Daegu FC	28	15	7	6	17	52
5	Busan I Park	29	14	6	9	10	48
6	Hwaseong	29	12	9	8	12	45
7	Asan Mugunghwa	28	10	9	9	4	39
8	Gimpo Citizen	28	9	11	8	2	38
9	Gyeongnam FC	28	8	11	9	-2	35
10	Cheongju	29	6	14	9	-12	32
11	Seongnam FC	28	7	10	11	-7	31
12	Paju Citizen	28	8	7	13	-7	31
13	Yongin City	28	6	12	10	-7	30
14	Cheonan City	28	6	11	11	-4	29
15	Ansan Greeners	29	7	4	18	-23	25
16	Jeonnam Dragons	28	5	9	14	-17	24
17	Gimhae City	28	3	8	17	-33	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hwaseong win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.