· Analysis updated 17:51 UTC
Ansbach vs Nürnberg II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Ansbach and 2.05 for Nürnberg II, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Nürnberg II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nürnberg II win
55.3% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ansbach home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nürnberg II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nürnberg II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 24% / 21% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Ansbach and 2.05 for Nürnberg II, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.6%
- 1–19.4%
- 0–27.6%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–36.6%
Recent form
Ansbach
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nürnberg II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs TSV 1860 München · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Landsberg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eltersdorf · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vilzing · 1-1 (D)
Nürnberg II
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Memmingen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ansbach · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Augsburg II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Greuther Fürth II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TSV 1860 München · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Bayern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Memmingen | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 33 |
| 2 | Buchbach | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 29 |
| 3 | SpVgg Unterhaching | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | TSV 1860 München | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Augsburg II | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 24 |
| 6 | Illertissen | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | Bayreuth | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 22 |
| 8 | Vilzing | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 9 | Eichstätt | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | Wacker Burghausen | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 20 |
| 11 | Nürnberg II | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 20 |
| 12 | Bayern München II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 13 | Eltersdorf | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 | Schwaben Augsburg | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Schweinfurt 05 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 16 | Greuther Fürth II | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 13 |
| 17 | Ansbach | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -17 | 12 |
| 18 | Aubstadt | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 19 | Landsberg | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -16 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nürnberg II win, at 55.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.