· Analysis updated 10:11 UTC
Anthoupoli vs Feraios Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Anthoupoli and 0.55 for Feraios, a combined total of 2.01. That distribution gives Anthoupoli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Anthoupoli win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 0.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Anthoupoli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 27% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Anthoupoli and 0.55 for Feraios, a combined 2.01 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 33%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 59% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.5%
- 2–014.2%
- 0–013.4%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Anthoupoli
Feraios
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Trikala · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthoupoli | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Trikala | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Ermis Exochi | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Elassona | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Pierikos | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Karitsa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Feraios | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Sarakinos | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 10 | Digenis Neochori | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 11 | Iraklis Larissa | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Anthoupoli win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.