· Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
Anthoupoli vs Iraklis Larissa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Anthoupoli and 0.74 for Iraklis Larissa, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Anthoupoli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Anthoupoli win
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.89 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Iraklis Larissa away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Anthoupoli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 21% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for Anthoupoli and 0.74 for Iraklis Larissa, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 2–012.8%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.1%
Recent form
Anthoupoli
Iraklis Larissa
- 2023-06-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Veria · 0-3 (L)
- 2023-06-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Makedonikos Neapolis · 0-0 (D)
- 2023-06-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Panathinaikos II · 1-3 (L)
- 2023-05-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panserraikos · 2-0 (W)
- 2023-05-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraklis 1908 · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trikala | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Anthoupoli | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Ermis Exochi | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Elassona | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Pierikos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Karitsa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sarakinos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Feraios | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 10 | Iraklis Larissa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 11 | Digenis Neochori | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Anthoupoli win, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.