Antigua and Barbuda vs Aruba Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Antigua and Barbuda and 1.53 for Aruba, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Aruba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Aruba win

49.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Antigua and Barbuda home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aruba away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aruba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 25% / 26% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Antigua and Barbuda and 1.53 for Aruba, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Antigua and Barbuda win25%

Draw26%

Aruba win50%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.2%
0–112.1%
1–29.3%
0–29.3%
1–07.9%

Recent form

Antigua and Barbuda

2026-10-01T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Anguilla · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Anguilla · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-23T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Aruba · 0-1 (L)
2025-11-18T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Guyana · 1-4 (L)
2025-11-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Aruba · 0-0 (D)

Aruba

2026-10-04T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Anguilla · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-29T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Anguilla · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-23T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Antigua and Barbuda · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-07T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Curaçao · 0-4 (L)
2026-03-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Liechtenstein · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

CONCACAF Series table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guyana	4	4	0	0	8	12
2	British Virgin Islands	4	3	1	0	11	10
3	Saint Martin	4	3	0	1	5	9
4	Cuba	4	2	2	0	5	8
5	Sint Maarten	4	2	2	0	2	8
6	Cayman Islands	4	2	1	1	4	7
7	Belize	4	2	0	2	2	6
8	Dominican Republic	4	1	3	0	2	6
9	St. Vincent / Grenadines	4	2	0	2	-1	6
10	Anguilla	4	2	0	2	-5	6
11	Aruba	2	1	1	0	3	4
12	El Salvador	2	1	1	0	1	4
13	Bonaire	4	1	0	3	-3	3
14	Barbados	4	1	0	3	-5	3
15	Martinique	4	0	2	2	-3	2
16	Antigua and Barbuda	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Dominica	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	St. Kitts and Nevis	2	0	1	1	-4	1
19	St. Lucia	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	Bahamas	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Aruba win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.