ABFA Technical Centre · Referee Kwinsi Williams · Analysis updated 19:52 UTC
Antigua and Barbuda vs Cuba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Antigua and Barbuda and 1.33 for Cuba, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Cuba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Antigua and Barbuda home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cuba away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cuba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 36% / 26% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Antigua and Barbuda and 1.33 for Cuba, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Antigua and Barbuda
- 2026-10-01T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Anguilla · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Anguilla · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Aruba · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-11-18T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Guyana · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-11-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Aruba · 0-0 (D)
Cuba
- 2026-10-02T21:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Kitts and Nevis · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-28T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Bonaire · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Grenada · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-03-29T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Dominican Republic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-26T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Martinique · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panama | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Suriname | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Guatemala | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | El Salvador | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 1 | Curaçao | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Jamaica | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Trinidad and Tobago | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Bermuda | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -19 | 1 |
| 1 | Haiti | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Honduras | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Costa Rica | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Nicaragua | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.