Estadio Pensativo · Referee C. Nolasco · Analysis updated 17:48 UTC
Antigua GFC vs CD Marathon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Antigua GFC and 1.70 for CD Marathon, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives CD Marathon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CD Marathon win
54.9% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Antigua GFC home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CD Marathon away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CD Marathon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 21% / 24% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Antigua GFC and 1.70 for CD Marathon, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.0%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.1%
Recent form
Antigua GFC
- 2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Comunicaciones · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobán Imperial · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T02:00:00.000Z · H vs CD Marathon · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-09T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Guastatoya · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-05T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Estelí · 0-2 (L)
CD Marathon
- 2026-10-11T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Lobos Upnfm · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Juticalpa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs LD Alajuelense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:15:00.000Z · H vs CD Olimpia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T01:06:00.000Z · H vs LD Alajuelense · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONCACAF Central American Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Olimpia | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 2 | LD Alajuelense | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | CD Motagua | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | CS Cartagines | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Deportivo Saprissa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Alianza | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 7 | CD Marathon | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | CS Herediano | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Firpo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 10 | Municipal | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Plaza Amador | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Mixco | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Real Estelí | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | FAS | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | Xelajú | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Alianza FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | Diriangén | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 18 | UMECIT | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
| 19 | Antigua GFC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 0 |
| 20 | Verdes | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CD Marathon win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.