Estadio Pensativo · Analysis updated 18:05 UTC
Antigua GFC vs Municipal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Antigua GFC and 1.23 for Municipal, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Antigua GFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.9% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Antigua GFC home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Municipal away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.6%
- 2–07.5%
Recent form
Antigua GFC
- 2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Comunicaciones · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobán Imperial · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T02:00:00.000Z · H vs CD Marathon · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-09T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Guastatoya · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-05T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Estelí · 0-2 (L)
Municipal
- 2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Xelajú · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-21T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Mixco · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Guastatoya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobán Imperial · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Marquense · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-12T01:00:00.000Z · Antigua GFC 1-0 Municipal (Liga Nacional)
- 2026-02-22T00:00:00.000Z · Antigua GFC 2-4 Municipal (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-12-28T00:00:00.000Z · Antigua GFC 0-1 Municipal (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-12-22T01:00:00.000Z · Antigua GFC 2-0 Municipal (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-11-23T00:00:00.000Z · Antigua GFC 1-2 Municipal (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-09-18T02:00:00.000Z · Antigua GFC 1-1 Municipal (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-05-18T20:00:00.000Z · Antigua GFC 2-1 Municipal (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-05-16T01:00:00.000Z · Antigua GFC 0-0 Municipal (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-04-02T18:30:00.000Z · Antigua GFC 2-1 Municipal (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-01-30T01:00:00.000Z · Antigua GFC 2-1 Municipal (Liga Nacional)
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua GFC | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 29 |
| 2 | Municipal | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 3 | Guastatoya | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 27 |
| 4 | Mixco | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Xelajú | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 24 |
| 6 | Marquense | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 24 |
| 7 | Deportivo San Pedro | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 23 |
| 8 | Aurora | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 22 |
| 9 | Cobán Imperial | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 19 |
| 10 | Malacateco | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Comunicaciones | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 | Suchitepéquez | 16 | 1 | 6 | 9 | -16 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.