Antofagasta vs Curico Unido Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Antofagasta and 0.73 for Curico Unido, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Antofagasta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Antofagasta win

59.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.65 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Antofagasta home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Curico Unido away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Antofagasta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 24% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Antofagasta and 0.73 for Curico Unido, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Antofagasta win60%

Draw24%

Curico Unido win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–015.3%
2–012.7%
1–111.1%
0–09.3%
2–19.2%

Recent form

Antofagasta

2026-08-23T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Temuco · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Iquique · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-13T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Santiago Wanderers · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Espanola · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-01T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Union San Felipe · 5-1 (W)

Curico Unido

2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Magallanes · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Concepción · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-23T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Concepción · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos de Arica · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-08T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Espanola · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cobreloa	29	15	9	5	22	54
2	San Luis	29	15	9	5	14	54
3	Santiago Wanderers	29	14	8	7	16	50
4	Magallanes	29	13	7	9	1	46
5	Antofagasta	28	12	9	7	21	45
6	Recoleta	29	11	9	9	-2	42
7	Deportes Copiapo	29	11	8	10	1	41
8	San Marcos de Arica	28	10	10	8	6	40
9	Union Espanola	29	11	6	12	-3	39
10	Deportes Iquique	29	9	11	9	9	38
11	D. Puerto Montt	29	11	5	13	-7	38
12	Deportes Temuco	28	9	9	10	5	36
13	Curico Unido	28	7	10	11	-16	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	29	4	12	13	-14	24
15	Union San Felipe	29	5	8	16	-34	23
16	Rangers de Talca	29	5	6	18	-19	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Antofagasta win, at 59.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.