Estadio Regional de Antofagasta · Analysis updated 13:46 UTC
Antofagasta vs Deportes Temuco Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Antofagasta and 1.05 for Deportes Temuco, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Antofagasta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Antofagasta win
54.9% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Antofagasta home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Deportes Temuco away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–16.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.4%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.42 | 65.5% | 68.1% | 1.47 | +2.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 43.3% | 45.1% | 2.22 | +1.8 |
| Match result | Away | 4.33 | 20.9% | 22.0% | 4.55 | +1.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.05 | 44.6% | 45.7% | 2.19 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.67 | 54.3% | 54.9% | 1.82 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.05 | 45.3% | 45.8% | 2.18 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 77.0% | 76.9% | 1.30 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.70 | 54.7% | 54.2% | 1.85 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 55.4% | 54.3% | 1.84 | -1.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.65 | 24.8% | 23.1% | 4.33 | -1.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 79.7% | 78.0% | 1.28 | -1.7 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.70 | 34.5% | 31.9% | 3.13 | -2.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Antofagasta
- 2026-08-23T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Temuco · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Iquique · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-13T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Santiago Wanderers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Espanola · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Union San Felipe · 5-1 (W)
Deportes Temuco
- 2026-10-03T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Cobreloa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Espanola · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Santiago Wanderers · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers de Talca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs D. Puerto Montt · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T21:00:00.000Z · Antofagasta 3-1 Deportes Temuco (Primera B)
- 2026-04-12T21:30:00.000Z · Antofagasta 3-3 Deportes Temuco (Primera B)
- 2025-08-03T16:30:00.000Z · Antofagasta 2-2 Deportes Temuco (Primera B)
- 2025-03-17T21:00:00.000Z · Antofagasta 0-0 Deportes Temuco (Primera B)
- 2024-07-31T22:00:00.000Z · Antofagasta 0-1 Deportes Temuco (Primera B)
- 2024-03-16T21:00:00.000Z · Antofagasta 0-1 Deportes Temuco (Primera B)
- 2023-09-03T15:30:00.000Z · Antofagasta 1-2 Deportes Temuco (Primera B)
- 2023-04-29T19:00:00.000Z · Antofagasta 6-0 Deportes Temuco (Primera B)
- 2018-07-21T19:00:00.000Z · Antofagasta 1-1 Deportes Temuco (Primera División)
- 2018-05-05T18:00:00.000Z · Antofagasta 3-2 Deportes Temuco (Primera División)
Primera B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 22 | 54 |
| 2 | San Luis | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 54 |
| 3 | Santiago Wanderers | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 50 |
| 4 | Magallanes | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 46 |
| 5 | Antofagasta | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 45 |
| 6 | Recoleta | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | -2 | 42 |
| 7 | Deportes Copiapo | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 41 |
| 8 | San Marcos de Arica | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 9 | Union Espanola | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Deportes Iquique | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 38 |
| 11 | D. Puerto Montt | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | -7 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportes Temuco | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 36 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -16 | 31 |
| 14 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 29 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -14 | 24 |
| 15 | Union San Felipe | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -34 | 23 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -19 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Antofagasta win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.