· Referee J. Pacheco · Analysis updated 16:29 UTC
Anzoátegui FC vs Monagas SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Anzoátegui FC and 1.40 for Monagas SC, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Monagas SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Monagas SC win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Anzoátegui FC home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Monagas SC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monagas SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 26% / 27% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Anzoátegui FC and 1.40 for Monagas SC, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.2%
- 1–09.1%
- 0–29.1%
Recent form
Anzoátegui FC
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Carabobo FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Caracas FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T23:30:00.000Z · A vs UCV · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Metropolitanos FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Petare FC · 2-1 (W)
Monagas SC
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Guyana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Zuliano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Caracas FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Monagas SC win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.