Estadio Etelvino Mendonca · Analysis updated 02:57 UTC
AO Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for AO Itabaiana and 1.29 for Botafogo PB, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Botafogo PB the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Botafogo PB or Draw
72.8% probability
Expected goals
0.94 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.8%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.7%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–28.9%
Why the model likes this
AO Itabaiana home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Botafogo PB away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Botafogo PB to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 27% / 28% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for AO Itabaiana and 1.29 for Botafogo PB, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Recent form
AO Itabaiana
- 2026-08-09T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Caxias · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Confiança · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-13T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Brusque · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-07T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Amazonas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-27T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferroviária · 1-0 (W)
Botafogo PB
- 2026-08-15T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Amazonas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Caxias · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-12T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Confiança · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-06T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Anápolis · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brusque | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 30 |
| 2 | Inter De Limeira | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 28 |
| 3 | Botafogo PB | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 4 | Paysandu | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 26 |
| 5 | Guarani Campinas | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 26 |
| 6 | Santa Cruz | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 25 |
| 7 | Ypiranga-RS | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 24 |
| 8 | Amazonas | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 24 |
| 9 | Caxias | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 10 | Ferroviária | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 24 |
| 11 | Maranhão | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 24 |
| 12 | Maringá | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 23 |
| 13 | Ituano | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 22 |
| 14 | Volta Redonda | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | -9 | 21 |
| 15 | Floresta | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 21 |
| 16 | Figueirense | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -5 | 21 |
| 17 | AO Itabaiana | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -7 | 17 |
| 18 | Anápolis | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -5 | 15 |
| 19 | Barra | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -2 | 15 |
| 20 | Confiança | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 12 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.