Estadio Etelvino Mendonca · Referee A. Moraes · Analysis updated 15:46 UTC
AO Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for AO Itabaiana and 0.86 for Botafogo PB, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives AO Itabaiana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.5% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AO Itabaiana home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Botafogo PB away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AO Itabaiana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 30% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for AO Itabaiana and 0.86 for Botafogo PB, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.4%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–08.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 60.8% vs market 52.2%, edge +8.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 52.2% | 60.8% | 1.64 | +8.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.65 | 57.1% | 57.9% | 1.73 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 27.0% | 27.5% | 3.64 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 69.8% | 69.6% | 1.44 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.10 | 42.4% | 42.1% | 2.38 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 30.7% | 30.4% | 3.29 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.29 | 73.1% | 72.5% | 1.38 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 47.8% | 39.2% | 2.55 | -8.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
AO Itabaiana
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo PB · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Maranhão · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Barra · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-09T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Caxias · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Confiança · 1-1 (D)
Botafogo PB
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Floresta · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Maringá · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Maringá · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Floresta · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · AO Itabaiana 0-2 Botafogo PB (Serie C)
- 2026-04-22T22:00:00.000Z · AO Itabaiana 3-3 Botafogo PB (Copa do Nordeste)
- 2025-06-30T22:30:00.000Z · AO Itabaiana 1-0 Botafogo PB (Serie C)
- 2024-03-24T19:00:00.000Z · AO Itabaiana 0-1 Botafogo PB (Copa do Nordeste)
Serie C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Botafogo PB | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 33 |
| 2 | Brusque | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 32 |
| 3 | Ferroviária | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | Maringá | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | Floresta | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 30 |
| 6 | Inter De Limeira | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 30 |
| 7 | Paysandu | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | -1 | 29 |
| 8 | Santa Cruz | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 29 |
| 9 | Ypiranga-RS | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 29 |
| 10 | Guarani Campinas | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 28 |
| 11 | Figueirense | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | -3 | 28 |
| 12 | Maranhão | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 27 |
| 13 | Amazonas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 26 |
| 14 | Caxias | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 25 |
| 15 | Ituano | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | -3 | 22 |
| 16 | Volta Redonda | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -12 | 21 |
| 17 | Barra | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
| 18 | Anápolis | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 19 |
| 19 | AO Itabaiana | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -13 | 17 |
| 20 | Confiança | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | -9 | 13 |
| 1 | Ferroviária | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Inter De Limeira | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Brusque | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Paysandu | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 1 | Maringá | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 2 | Santa Cruz | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 3 | Floresta | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 4 | Botafogo PB | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.