Lambert Park · Referee A. Bavcar · Analysis updated 01:27 UTC
APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs Peninsula Power Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for APIA Leichhardt Tigers and 1.16 for Peninsula Power, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives APIA Leichhardt Tigers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
APIA Leichhardt Tigers win
46.9% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
APIA Leichhardt Tigers home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Peninsula Power away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates APIA Leichhardt Tigers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for APIA Leichhardt Tigers and 1.16 for Peninsula Power, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.0%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
- 2026-09-13T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Sydney United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T06:00:00.000Z · H vs NWS Spirit · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · H vs St George City FA · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Sydney United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Melbourne Victory · 0-1 (L)
Peninsula Power
- 2026-08-30T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Lions · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Brisbane City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Gold Coast Knights · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Lions · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Moreton City Excelsior · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Australia Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Victory | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 2 | South Melbourne | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | Sydney | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Lions | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Preston Lions | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Macarthur | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Heidelberg United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Fremantle City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | SD Raiders | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | North Sunshine Eagles | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Brisbane Roar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Brunswick Juventus FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Melbourne City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Sydney United | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 17 | Central Coast Mariners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Perth Glory | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | FK Beograd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Newcastle Jets | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Adelaide United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Maitland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Peninsula Power | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Rochedale Rovers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Cooma Tigers FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 26 | Cumberland United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 27 | Sydney Olympic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 28 | Uni Azzurri | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 29 | Weston Bears | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 30 | Bayswater City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Kingborough Lions | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 32 | Marlin Coast | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is APIA Leichhardt Tigers win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.