Alphamega Stadium · Referee Marios Christoforou, Cyprus · Analysis updated 09:17 UTC
Apollon Limassol vs Anorthosis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.74 expected goals for Apollon Limassol and 0.71 for Anorthosis, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Apollon Limassol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Apollon Limassol win
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.74 – 0.71
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Apollon Limassol home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Anorthosis away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 2–013.1%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 58.1% vs market 49.7%, edge +8.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 49.7% | 58.1% | 1.72 | +8.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.11 | 84.6% | 85.2% | 1.17 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 22.9% | 23.1% | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.44 | 62.1% | 62.1% | 1.61 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 6.00 | 14.9% | 14.8% | 6.76 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.0% | 76.9% | 1.30 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.45 | 38.3% | 37.9% | 2.64 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.83 | 50.3% | 41.9% | 2.39 | -8.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Apollon Limassol
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Larnaca · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Apoel Nicosia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Anorthosis · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 2-2 (D)
Anorthosis
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nea Salamis · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Apoel Nicosia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Apollon Limassol · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AEL · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Apoel Nicosia · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-15T14:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 1-1 Anorthosis (1. Division)
- 2026-01-14T16:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 2-0 Anorthosis (Cup)
- 2025-12-07T17:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 0-0 Anorthosis (1. Division)
- 2025-01-29T17:30:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 3-1 Anorthosis (Cup)
- 2024-12-21T17:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 2-0 Anorthosis (1. Division)
- 2024-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 2-1 Anorthosis (1. Division)
- 2024-02-14T17:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 0-2 Anorthosis (1. Division)
- 2023-11-26T17:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 0-1 Anorthosis (1. Division)
- 2023-01-15T17:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 3-0 Anorthosis (1. Division)
- 2022-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 1-0 Anorthosis (1. Division)
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEL | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Apollon Limassol | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Pafos | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Aris | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Anorthosis | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Aradippou | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Nea Salamis | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Krasava Ypsonas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 14 | Karmiotissa | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Apollon Limassol win, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.