Alphamega Stadium · Referee Constantinos Fellas, Cyprus · Analysis updated 20:09 UTC
Apollon Limassol vs Apoel Nicosia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Apollon Limassol and 1.43 for Apoel Nicosia, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Apollon Limassol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Apollon Limassol win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Apollon Limassol home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Apoel Nicosia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.2%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–06.4%
Recent form
Apollon Limassol
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nea Salamis · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Krasava Ypsonas · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Larnaca · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Apoel Nicosia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 0-0 (D)
Apoel Nicosia
- 2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pafos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nea Salamis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Apollon Limassol · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Anorthosis · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AEL · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 2-2 Apoel Nicosia (1. Division)
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 2-0 Apoel Nicosia (1. Division)
- 2026-04-29T15:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 0-0 Apoel Nicosia (Cup)
- 2026-04-22T16:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 4-2 Apoel Nicosia (Cup)
- 2026-04-14T14:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 3-2 Apoel Nicosia (1. Division)
- 2026-01-18T17:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 2-1 Apoel Nicosia (1. Division)
- 2025-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 0-2 Apoel Nicosia (1. Division)
- 2025-08-09T17:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 2-1 Apoel Nicosia (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 0-0 Apoel Nicosia (1. Division)
- 2025-03-29T15:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol 1-1 Apoel Nicosia (1. Division)
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEL | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Apollon Limassol | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Pafos | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Aris | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Anorthosis | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Aradippou | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Nea Salamis | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Krasava Ypsonas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 14 | Karmiotissa | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Apollon Limassol win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.