Apollon Limassol W vs Czarni Sosnowiec W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Apollon Limassol W and 1.53 for Czarni Sosnowiec W, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Apollon Limassol W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.72 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Apollon Limassol W home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Czarni Sosnowiec W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Apollon Limassol W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Apollon Limassol W and 1.53 for Czarni Sosnowiec W, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Apollon Limassol W win43%

Draw23%

Czarni Sosnowiec W win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.2%
2–18.8%
1–27.8%
1–06.7%
2–26.7%

Recent form

Apollon Limassol W

2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FH W · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FH W · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vllaznia W · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Czarni Sosnowiec W · 3-3 (D)
2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hibernian W · 2-3 (L)

Czarni Sosnowiec W

2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sleza Wroclaw W · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Akademia Piłkarska LG W · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Slask Wroclaw W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Breidablik W · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T10:45:00.000Z · H vs UJ Krakow W · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-05T14:00:00.000Z · Apollon Limassol W 3-3 Czarni Sosnowiec W (UEFA Champions League Women)

UEFA Champions League Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona W	2	2	0	0	9	6
2	Lyon W	2	1	1	0	8	4
3	Paris Saint Germain W	2	1	1	0	5	4
4	Bayern Munich W	2	1	1	0	3	4
5	Arsenal W	2	1	1	0	1	4
6	Inter Milano W	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Chelsea W	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Køge W	2	1	0	1	3	3
9	Juventus W	2	1	0	1	2	3
10	SL Benfica W	2	1	0	1	-2	3
11	Manchester City W	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Real Madrid W	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Austria Wien W	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Paris FC W	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	OH Leuven W	2	0	1	1	-5	1
16	Roma W	2	0	1	1	-6	1
17	Häcken W	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	Servette Chênois W	2	0	0	2	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.