· Analysis updated 03:05 UTC
Apollon Pontou vs Sarakinos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Apollon Pontou and 0.55 for Sarakinos, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Apollon Pontou the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Apollon Pontou win
72.3% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 0.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Apollon Pontou home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sarakinos away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Apollon Pontou to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 19% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Apollon Pontou and 0.55 for Sarakinos, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–015.6%
- 1–015.4%
- 3–010.5%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–18.5%
Recent form
Apollon Pontou
- 2026-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nestos Chrisoupolis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panthrakikos · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elassona · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panthrakikos · 0-2 (L)
Sarakinos
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Trikala · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pierikos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Karitsa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kozani · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-15T13:00:00.000Z · Apollon Pontou 4-1 Sarakinos (Gamma Ethniki - Group 2)
- 2025-11-16T13:00:00.000Z · Apollon Pontou 3-0 Sarakinos (Gamma Ethniki - Group 2)
Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finikas Polichnis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | Poseidon Nea Michaniona | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Agiou Nikolaou | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Mpam | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Iraklis Therm. | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Makedonikos Neapolis | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | PAO Kristoni | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 8 | Polykastrou | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Akrites Sykeon | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 10 | Kilkisiakos | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 11 | Panedessaikos | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Apollon Pontou win, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.