Stadiumi Loni Papuciu · Analysis updated 01:47 UTC
Apolonia Fier vs Pogradeci Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Apolonia Fier and 1.60 for Pogradeci, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Pogradeci the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pogradeci win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Apolonia Fier home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pogradeci away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pogradeci to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 26% / 25% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Apolonia Fier and 1.60 for Pogradeci, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
Apolonia Fier
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Burreli · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Besa Kavajë · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Korabi Peshkopi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Kukesi · 0-2 (L)
Pogradeci
- 2026-10-23T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bylis · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Sopoti Librazhd · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Korabi Peshkopi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Delvina · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamurtari · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Besa Kavajë | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Pogradeci | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Flamurtari | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | FK Kukesi | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Bylis | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Kastrioti Krujë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Korabi Peshkopi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Sopoti Librazhd | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Burreli | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Oriku | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pogradeci win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.