· Analysis updated 08:32 UTC
APS Bomet vs Posta Rangers FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for APS Bomet and 0.67 for Posta Rangers FC, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives APS Bomet the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
77.3% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 0.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates APS Bomet to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 33% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for APS Bomet and 0.67 for Posta Rangers FC, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 26% and both teams to score at 32%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 77% with high confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.7%
- 0–017.4%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.7%
- 2–010.1%
Recent form
APS Bomet
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs GOR Mahia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mathare United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tusker · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Leopards · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bandari · 2-0 (W)
Posta Rangers FC
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KCB · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Murang'a SEAL · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Shabana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulinzi Stars · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs KCB · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Mara Sugar | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | AFC Leopards | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Homeboyz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Shabana | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | KCB | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Murang'a SEAL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Posta Rangers FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | 3K | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Nairobi United | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Migori Youth | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Bandari | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Ulinzi Stars | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Kenya Police | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 17 | APS Bomet | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Mombasa Elite | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 77.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.