Aragua FC vs Monagas II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Aragua FC and 1.03 for Monagas II, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Aragua FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Aragua FC home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Monagas II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aragua FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 29% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Aragua FC and 1.03 for Monagas II, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Aragua FC win39%

Draw29%

Monagas II win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–113.4%
1–013.1%
0–111.6%
0–011.4%
2–17.7%

Recent form

Aragua FC

2026-09-27T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Avila FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Petare FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Yaracuyanos FC · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Monagas II · 2-2 (D)

Monagas II

2026-09-27T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Mineros de Guyana · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Aragua FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Petare FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-23T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Avila FC · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo Lara	32	21	7	4	32	70
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	31	15	8	8	18	53
3	Yaracuyanos FC	31	15	7	9	18	52
4	Urena SC	32	12	12	8	3	48
5	Atletico el Vigia FC	32	12	8	12	-9	44
6	Zamora FC B	30	11	7	12	0	40
7	Club Atletico Barinas	31	10	5	16	-9	35
8	Puerto Cabello II	32	9	7	16	-10	34
9	Real Frontera	31	4	3	24	-43	15
1	Monagas II	24	13	6	5	12	45
2	Petare FC	25	12	5	8	9	41
3	Aragua FC	25	10	10	5	9	40
4	Bolívar	25	12	4	9	0	40
5	Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz	26	9	9	8	3	36
6	Mineros de Guyana	25	4	9	12	-10	21
7	Marítimo	15	5	5	5	0	20
8	Atletico Avila FC	25	1	10	14	-23	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.