Tsentraluri Stadioni · Analysis updated 15:13 UTC
Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Aragvi Dusheti and 1.53 for Gareji, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Aragvi Dusheti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.5% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aragvi Dusheti home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gareji away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aragvi Dusheti to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 24% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Aragvi Dusheti and 1.53 for Gareji, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–07.0%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
Aragvi Dusheti
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Telavi · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sioni · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Odishi 1919 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Merani Martvili · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Shturmi · 3-4 (L)
Gareji
- 2026-08-29T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Merani Martvili · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolkheti Poti · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aragvi Dusheti · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Telavi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-02T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gagra · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Erovnuli Liga 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareji | 29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 53 |
| 2 | Telavi | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 46 |
| 3 | Shturmi | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 46 |
| 4 | Merani Martvili | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | -3 | 40 |
| 5 | Samtredia | 29 | 12 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 40 |
| 6 | Aragvi Dusheti | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | -9 | 38 |
| 7 | Sioni | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -1 | 36 |
| 8 | Odishi 1919 | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -11 | 35 |
| 9 | Kolkheti Poti | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 31 |
| 10 | Gori | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | -8 | 30 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.