Aragvi Dusheti vs Gori Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Aragvi Dusheti and 1.28 for Gori, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Aragvi Dusheti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Aragvi Dusheti home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gori away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aragvi Dusheti to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 26% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Aragvi Dusheti and 1.28 for Gori, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Aragvi Dusheti win39%

Draw26%

Gori win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.5%
1–09.8%
0–19.2%
2–18.4%
1–27.9%

Recent form

Aragvi Dusheti

2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Telavi · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sioni · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Odishi 1919 · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Merani Martvili · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Shturmi · 3-4 (L)

Gori

2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolkheti Poti · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gareji · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Telavi · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Odishi 1919 · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Shturmi · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Erovnuli Liga 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gareji	27	14	8	5	7	50
2	Telavi	27	11	10	6	4	43
3	Shturmi	27	11	10	6	6	43
4	Merani Martvili	27	10	7	10	-4	37
5	Samtredia	27	11	4	12	8	37
6	Aragvi Dusheti	27	10	5	12	-7	35
7	Sioni	27	8	9	10	1	33
8	Odishi 1919	27	8	8	11	-8	32
9	Kolkheti Poti	27	6	10	11	1	28
10	Gori	27	6	9	12	-8	27

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.