· Analysis updated 16:17 UTC
Aral vs Pakhtakor II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.20 expected goals for Aral and 0.43 for Pakhtakor II, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Aral the largest share of the 1X2 market at 90%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 90% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aral win
89.6% probability
Expected goals
3.20 – 0.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aral home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pakhtakor II away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aral to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 90%, against 90% / 8% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.20 goals for Aral and 0.43 for Pakhtakor II, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
10%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–014.5%
- 2–013.6%
- 4–011.6%
- 1–08.5%
- 5–07.4%
Recent form
Aral
- 2026-09-21T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Yaypan · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lochin · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FarDu · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Kattaqurgon · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpik-Mobiuz · 1-2 (L)
Pakhtakor II
- 2026-08-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yaypan · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lochin · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FarDu · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kattaqurgon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpik-Mobiuz · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aral | 23 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 35 | 58 |
| 2 | Metalourg | 23 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 47 |
| 3 | Shortan | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 46 |
| 4 | Gazalkent | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 41 |
| 5 | FarDu | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Lochin | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 39 |
| 7 | Kattaqurgon | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 37 |
| 8 | Olimpik-Mobiuz | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 36 |
| 9 | Respublika FA | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | -2 | 29 |
| 10 | Yaypan | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | -16 | 25 |
| 11 | Jayxun | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | -8 | 24 |
| 12 | Pakhtakor II | 23 | 4 | 1 | 18 | -33 | 13 |
| 13 | BuxDu | 23 | 4 | 1 | 18 | -34 | 13 |
| 14 | Qiziriq | 23 | 1 | 1 | 21 | -45 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aral win, at 89.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 90% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.