· Analysis updated 09:56 UTC
Aranova vs Trastevere Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Aranova and 1.19 for Trastevere, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Aranova the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aranova win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aranova home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Trastevere away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aranova to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Aranova and 1.19 for Trastevere, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–08.2%
- 1–26.2%
Recent form
Aranova
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Certosa V. Campagnano · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Latte Dolce · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Monastir · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Albalonga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Budoni · 2-2 (D)
Trastevere
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aranova · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Città di Anagni · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Lodigiani · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Paganese · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ossese · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone G table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarnese | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Monastir | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Certosa V. Campagnano | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Trastevere | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 5 | Paganese | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Unipomezia | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Ossese | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Albalonga | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Aranova | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Anzio | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 11 | Afragolese | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | Città di Anagni | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Gelbison | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Venafro | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Budoni | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | Latte Dolce | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 | Atletico Lodigiani | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aranova win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.